Association of Interleukin-6 Levels with Morbidity and Mortality in Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19).

The prognostic value of interleukin-6 (IL-6) in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) needs to be clarified. In this retrospective study, COVID-19 patients treated at Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University from January 7 to February 8, 2020 with measurements of serum IL-6 levels within 1 week after admission were included. Data regarding demographics, clinical characteristics, laboratory tests, complications, and outcomes were collected and analyzed. Sixty-six patients diagnosed with COVID-19 were included in this study (31 patients were females). They were divided into a normal group (serum IL-6 <10 pg/mL, n = 35) and an abnormal group (serum IL-6 <10 pg/mL, n = 31). Compared with the normal group, the incidence of critical cases (P <0.001), acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) (P = 0.001), acute cardiac injury (P = 0.002), cardiac insufficiency (P = 0.039), mechanical ventilation rate (P = 0.002), and mortality (P = 0.021) was significantly increased in the abnormal group. Serum IL-6 concentration was an independent predictor of fatal outcome (P = 0.04). The optimal cutoff value of serum IL-6 concentration for predicting fatal outcomes was 26.09 pg/mL (P <0.001). In COVID-19, elevated serum IL-6 levels were associated with critical illness, use of mechanical ventilation, and complications, including heart injury and ARDS, and could predict a fatal outcome. Early detection of serum IL-6 levels after admission should be necessary in COVID-19 patients.

Profiles of liver function abnormalities in elderly patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019.

BACKGROUND: The profiles of liver function abnormalities in COVID-19 patients need to be clarified. METHODS: In this retrospective study, consecutive COVID-19 patients over 60 years old in Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University from January 1 to February 6 were included. Data of demographics, clinical characteristics, comorbidities, laboratory tests, medications and outcomes were collected and analysed. Sequential alterations of serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) were monitored. RESULTS: A total of 330 patients were included and classified into two groups with normal (n = 234) or elevated ALT (n = 96). There were fewer females (40.6% vs 54.7%, P = .020) and more critical cases (30.2% vs 19.2%, P = .026) in patients with elevated ALT compared with the normal group. Higher levels of bacterial infection indices (eg, white blood cell count, neutrophil count, C-reactive protein and procalcitonin) were observed in the elevated group. Spearman correlation showed that both ALT and AST levels were positively correlated with those indices of bacterial infection. No obvious effects of medications on ALT abnormalities were found. In patients with elevated ALT, most ALT elevations were mild and transient. 59.4% of the patients had ALT concentrations of 41-100 U/L, while only a few patients (5.2%) had high serum ALT concentrations above 300 U/L. ALT elevations occurred at 13 (10-17) days and recovered at 28 (18-35) days from disease onset. For most patients, the elevation of serum ALT levels occurred at 6-20 days after disease onset and reached their peak values within a similar time frame. The recovery of serum ALT levels to normal frequently occurred at 16-20 days or 31-35 days after disease onset. CONCLUSIONS: Liver function abnormalities were observed in 29.1% of elderly people COVID-19 patients, which were slightly and transient in most cases. Liver function abnormalities in COVID-19 may be correlated with bacterial infection.

Virus Transmission Risk in Urban Rail Systems: Microscopic Simulation-Based Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Characteristics

The transmission risk of airborne diseases in public transportation systems is a concern. This paper proposes a modified Wells-Riley model for risk analysis in public transportation systems to capture the passenger flow characteristics, including spatial and temporal patterns, in the number of boarding and alighting passengers, and in number of infectors. The model is used to assess overall risk as a function of origin–destination flows, actual operations, and factors such as mask-wearing and ventilation. The model is integrated with a microscopic simulation model of subway operations (SimMETRO). Using actual data from a subway system, a case study explores the impact of different factors on transmission risk, including mask-wearing, ventilation rates, infectiousness levels of disease, and carrier rates. In general, mask-wearing and ventilation are effective under various demand levels, infectiousness levels, and carrier rates. Mask-wearing is more effective in mitigating risks. Impacts from operations and service frequency are also evaluated, emphasizing the importance of maintaining reliable, frequent operations in lowering transmission risks. Risk spatial patterns are also explored, highlighting locations of higher risk.

Coronavirus disease 2019 in elderly patients: Characteristics and prognostic factors based on 4-week follow-up.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the characteristics and prognostic factors in the elderly patients with COVID-19. METHODS: Consecutive cases over 60 years old with COVID-19 in Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University from Jan 1 to Feb 6, 2020 were included. The primary outcomes were death and survival till March 5. Data of demographics, clinical features, comorbidities, laboratory tests and complications were collected and compared for different outcomes. Cox regression was performed for prognostic factors. RESULTS: 339 patients with COVID-19 (aged 71±8 years,173 females (51%)) were enrolled, including 80 (23.6%) critical, 159 severe (46.9%) and 100 moderate (29.5%) cases. Common comorbidities were hypertension (40.8%), diabetes (16.0%) and cardiovascular disease (15.7%). Common symptoms included fever (92.0%), cough (53.0%), dyspnea (40.8%) and fatigue (39.9%). Lymphocytopenia was a common laboratory finding (63.2%). Common complications included bacterial infection (42.8%), liver enzyme abnormalities (28.7%) and acute respiratory distress syndrome (21.0%). Till Mar 5, 2020, 91 cases were discharged (26.8%), 183 cases stayed in hospital (54.0%) and 65 cases (19.2%) were dead. Shorter length of stay was found for the dead compared with the survivors (5 (3-8) vs. 28 (26-29), P < 0.001). Symptoms of dyspnea (HR 2.35, P = 0.001), comorbidities including cardiovascular disease (HR 1.86, P = 0.031) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HR 2.24, P = 0.023), and acute respiratory distress syndrome (HR 29.33, P < 0.001) were strong predictors of death. And a high level of lymphocytes was predictive of better outcome (HR 0.10, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: High proportion of severe to critical cases and high fatality rate were observed in the elderly COVID-19 patients. Rapid disease progress was noted in the dead with a median survival time of 5 days after admission. Dyspnea, lymphocytopenia, comorbidities including cardiovascular disease and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and acute respiratory distress syndrome were predictive of poor outcome. Close monitoring and timely treatment should be performed for the elderly patients at high risk.